MyDD :: Today's Other Polls: It's Tied

by gorebeatbush2 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:12:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Convention of the Party that does not currently hold the White House is always first...it's a tradition.

by Steve24 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:13:15 PM EST
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I don't think the Democratic Convention always comes before the GOP convention. It depends on what party is in power. If the Republicans control the White House, their convention comes after the Democrats.

The party in power (none / 0)

goes last, like the Dems did in 1996 and 2000

To go last, we must win.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:13:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Thanks, is there a law? (2.00 / 0)

If it's custom, then I call BS on this. As we've seen time and again, you can do whatever the hell you want when it's against custom because the other side can't use people with guns to stop you.

by MNPundit on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:18:16 PM EST
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It's tradition (none / 0)

sort of like home field advantage in the World Series if you win the All-Star Game.

I warned about this months ago, that McCain is going to find some way to smack down Obama's convention bounce right away. He did it perfectly. I'm sure he had it planned for months...didn't matter who Obama picked as a running mate or how the convention played out.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:21:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's tradition (none / 0)

I agree. I think McCain had a wide array of game changing options to draw from in his VP picks, not just Palin. I do not believe there was a way to avoid this.

by iohs2008 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:05:23 PM EST
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If Hillary had won (2.00 / 1)

on the backs of superdelegates or in some way perceived by Obama supporters are unfair, McCain would've selected JC Watts.

If Obama had put Hillary on the ticket, it would've Huckabee or Giuliani or Jon Huntsman.

The Palin pick showed it wasn't about experience, it's about stealing the media narrative.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:11:57 PM EST
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The sanest thing said all day here (none / 0)

Agreed 100%.

Right now, I think it's 50/50 whether this fades by Friday and we're back even/slight Obama lead.

Let this be a warning to all, though, in that McCain will make whatever move, even if crazy, to dominate the cycle.

by iohs2008 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 04:04:43 PM EST
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Probably Not (none / 0)

If Hillary had won the nomination, she would have offered the VP spot to Obama. If Obama had accepted, McCain would not have selected an African-American as VP.

by Zzyzzy on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 04:12:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

Gallup tracking has Mccain up by 5 , 49 - 44....

Almost matching their stand alone poll

by lori on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:04:11 PM EST

They had Obama up 8 (2.00 / 1)

We cannot yet tell if this is a McCain surge or a McCain bounce.

Although I do agree that if Obama doesn't go negative soon, he better start drafting his concession speech.

by iohs2008 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:07:16 PM EST
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Re: They had Obama up 8 (none / 0)

He has gone negative. And he will continue to go negative.

What I have to wonder is why are we all soooooo negative. Why are we all so sure we are going to lose?

I don't understand the massive amount of pessimism.

Hey guys? You know we won right? You can stop the doooooomsaying now.

by JDF on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:47:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Never could either (none / 0)

But it's contagious, and it actually hurts the Obama campaign.

I'm not going to lie. I feel it too. This morning, I was like: we're going to lose.

Perhaps we need some red meat and some base rallying of our own.

by iohs2008 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:03:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Today's Other Polls: It's Tied (2.00 / 0)

It's based on McCain's big Saturday night. Sunday night was not as good for McCain - same is true for Rasmussen.

By Wednesday we'll see the numbers come back to normal.

by elrod on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:16:07 PM EST
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by bushsucks on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:31:52 PM EST
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where do you get the internals for Saturday and Sunday night?

Re: Today's Other Polls: It's Tied (2.00 / 0)

Its guess work. No one knows. THis is part of the prblem with some of the pollsters

by bruh3 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:33:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

NPR said that the USA Today/Gallup poll is more accurate than the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll because the Tracking Poll is a sample survey of registered voters, while the USA Today poll is a sample of likely voters. According to polls, McCain is making his gains among older lower income white women.

by Zzyzzy on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 04:16:45 PM EST
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Good analysis, but... (none / 0)

...what were these polls saying two weeks ago? What were they saying a week ago? It's a matter of relative changes.

by iohs2008 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:08:22 PM EST

Re: Gallup 2004 (2.00 / 2)

Let's take a look at Gallup/USA in 2004 to provide us with some context:

Mid August 2004
Bush 48
Kerry 46

After the GOP Convention 2004
Bush 55
Kerry 42

Mid October 2004
Kerry 49
Bush 48

Final outcome: Bush win by 2.4 percent

Keep Gallup in perspective. I am not saying to ignore them. Just keep them in perspective.

by bruh3 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:11:27 PM EST

Prediction (none / 0)

If this is McCain's highwater mark-- and I know I am going out on a limb- he's in trouble. The reason why is that he's running a base race. Bush was able to sustain his intensity for weeks. I know others have been saying wait until the end of this week. I kind of agree, but for different reasons. If McCain's numbers start to decline that means that the intensity even with Palin isn't the same as Bush's. This is all just reading tea leaves, but if he can't sustain his positive glow for longer- then he is left with the final game changer- the debates.

by bruh3 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:14:17 PM EST

Re: Prediction (none / 0)

I was one of those who thought Palin was a risky but not crazy choice by McCain. We need to attack her on her perceived strengths. Demorats need to do Daily Show style ads where they play the inconsistent statements over time of her and her supporters. Really make her look like a total joke.

by Pravin on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:16:19 PM EST
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Re: Prediction (2.00 / 1)

I disagree. People don't vote VP. The goal with Palin should ony be used in so far as it negatively brands McCain as another failed presidency in the making.

by bruh3 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:18:21 PM EST
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Re: Prediction (none / 0)

I dont think that should be the main attack. I too have said in the past that McCain should be the main focus of the attack, not Palin's inexperience. She has become a superstar in their community. Now those types wont vote OBama but I do not want to see a huge turnout from their base. I would like to se some of that enthusiasm dampened. What I don't want to see however is an attack on palin's experience alone. That won't get us anywhere. But it is legit to expose the hollowness of her personality. Evangelicals work best when they are giving a simple mission with no doubts. I want to create some doubts among that group not to get their votes, but to damapen their turnout.

by Pravin on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:37:15 PM EST
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This Year is Different (none / 0)

Because Palin is the first woman who has a real shot of becoming Vice President. Everyone knew that Mondale/Ferraro was never going to win.

Moreover, Obama's choice of Biden gave voters the perception that he is a rather conventional thinker. Democrats almost always pick a US senator for VP. In addition, Obama's list of programs he presented in his acceptance speech is pretty much the same programs Democrats have advocated over the last 20 years. On the other hand, McCain's pick of Palin reinforced the message that McCain is an out of the box thinker and that he is a reformer. McCain is stealing the mantle of change even though his platform is the same old Republican platform we've heard over the last 30 years.

by Zzyzzy on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 04:24:53 PM EST
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My prediction (none / 0)

Obama will lose if his only strategy is waiting for McCain to screw up.

Case closed.

by Betsy McCall on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:07:45 PM EST
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Obama needs to fight harder on the surge bullshit (none / 0)

I saw a clip of Obama on OReilly. Dear, he made most of the points he needed to make. But he came across kind of lame when O Reilly kind of bullied him into admitting the surge worked. obama did try to say that it was costing 10B a day even now, so what if it worked. But the way he said and the tone of his voice sucked. People will just come away from the interview with a hemming and hawing Obama saying the surge worked beyond the wildest dreams. What Obama should have done was try to control the pace of the interview at that point and say stuff like "well in any case when you put in more cops or soldiers, violence will go down. THat is not the point here. What if one small part of a big mistake worked? It is still a mistake. The question is is the worth the cost even now? I don't think so. And it was certainly not the worth the cost back then. Leaders have to be accountable for their mistakes. And mcCain made one big one making a successful substrategy of that mistake irrelevant even if I allow for the fact that this surge is successful"

He should have taken that line of thinking and used his advisers to distill into a few concise thoughts. He had to know O Reilly would ask him that question.

No wonder the idiot republicans are making hay with the notion that the surge worked. WHO THE FUCK CARES EVEN IF IT DID? And we need people lke Michael Ware to get more visibility to show that the surge was not as successful has hyped.

by Pravin on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:14:27 PM EST

It's the economy, stupid! (2.00 / 1)

People do not care about the surge.

I still think who wins this race is the candidate who can connect with voters in terms of the economy.

by puma on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:17:51 PM EST
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Re: It's the economy, stupid! (none / 0)

And I think Obama needs to connect those two in a more forceful manner. He should keep repeating the costs of the war and if it was worth it even if one wasnt against the war in principle.

by Pravin on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:30:35 PM EST
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Talk to everyday people (none / 0)

THEY THEMSELVES will admit they were wrong in the surge.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:22:10 PM EST
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Re: Obama needs to fight harder on the surge bulls (none / 0)

I disagree with your assessment of the Obama surge commentary. Militarily it did work. We can't deny that and would look foolish if we did.

He maintained the point that it did not do what it was supposed to do and that it was too expensive. He held his own with O'Really and even had him admitting that Obama was tough. (Which is, probably, the best compliment he could have possibly gotten in the interview.)

Hey guys? You know we won right? You can stop the doooooomsaying now.

by JDF on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:50:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama needs to fight harder on the surge bulls (none / 0)

Like I said, most surges work because you got more resources to combat a problem. The question is the surge is such a trivial point to use as a bragging point in the overall picture of a dumb war. And Obama should have really been firm of that. And there were other factors that went into the decreased violence and Obama should have said that right away instead of trying to avoid giving a clear cut answer the very first time O Reilly poses the question.

Since surges work, we could get rid of most crime in the US by sending a surge of cops to every neighborhood. But who will pay for it?

As you and I know, Obama made the right point. I think I disagree on the emphasis. More time seemed to be spent on O Reilly trying to get Obama to say the surge worked.

From what I read, Obama is supposed to have done well the rest of the interview. I will probably tune in and hope that it is true.

by Pravin on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:04:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Gallup doesn't weight their polls (none / 0)

thus they may have a high number of Repubs in their poll and we wouldn't even know it since they don't release those figures.

The bottom line is that the DEBATES are going to be crucial this year and may be the most watched debates ever.

by puma on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:16:16 PM EST

Re: Gallup doesn't weight their polls (none / 0)

Those figures were released, slightly more democrats than republicans were polled. :(

by SueBee on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:34:42 PM EST
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That's not helpful (none / 0)

Obama does poorly in debates. No advantage there. He's going to have to find another way to get a double digit lead by election day.

by Betsy McCall on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:09:30 PM EST
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by RichardFlatts on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:24:26 PM EST

If I hear one more time what a "good friend" John McCain is or about his service to this country, etc, etc, I am going to toss my cookies.

No wonder McCain is leading our candidates are telling everyone what a swell guy he is.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

Should have seen Joe Biden profess his love for his buddy Johnny , it took him all but 15 minutes in a 30 minutes speech to do that ...

Hey Johnny is a swell guy , if he tells me to go into the fire with him I will , but hey don't vote for him....

by lori on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:30:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

by eddieb on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:45:08 PM EST
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Someone has to remind Biden this is a Campaign and not the Senate floor! Thats the problem with picking Senators they are forced to always speak kindly of each other before they attack.

I'm used to the hyperventilation by now (none / 0)

But at some point, the negativity becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, as thousands of people decide "well it's over, we can't win, so I might as well stop working, stop donating, not even turn out to vote."

People. It was one poll.

One fucking poll.

Here's a reminder of basic statistics:

When a poll says that McCain has 54% support and Obama has 44% support with a 3% margin of error, just as an example... This means:

With a 95% probability, McCain's support is between 51% and 57%, and Obama's support is between 41% and 47%.

With a 5% probability, the true numbers are outside of those ranges.

It just happens--the way we calculate statistics and margins of error, we accept that an average of one out of every twenty polls is absolutely and totally wrong. The only way to determine which polls are right or wrong is to synthesize many polls looking at the same data and examine smoothed-out trends over time.

Proud member of the Wikipedia Generation of American politics

by BishopRook on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:27:53 PM EST

Re: I'm used to the hyperventilation by now (none / 0)

If Obama and Biden can tear down the falsehoods of the McCain convention and how a guy who supported the dumbest war in American history can bring about any change, and put it in BLUNT terms, they will win.

by Pravin on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:32:19 PM EST
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Re: I'm used to the hyperventilation by now (none / 0)

Come on, 'Rook! Where do you get off being all rational? To fit in here at MyDD you need to have a daily traking poll duct taped over your face, one finger on the panic button, and a trembling death grip on the "eject" lever.

I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt

by fogiv on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:52:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:31:07 PM EST

Actually, these polls have more similar results to Gallups findings than it shows. Take Hotlines finding that say its a tie. Look here:

Independents
McCain- 45
Obama-32

Republicans
McCain-85
Obama-7

Democrats
McCain-11
Obama-81

If you readjust the finds to reflect the 04 turnout, instead of having a poll that shows Obama equaling McCain, 44-44, even though he's losing by 13% among Independents, you'll get this:

McCain-47.2
Obama-40.6

But.... nothing.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

So the partisan breakdown and turnout models is wrong for one of these polls , is it gallup or the rest of them...

by lori on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:35:43 PM EST
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by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:59:20 PM EST
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All of them that are not going by an even breakdown between the D's and R's, imo.

http://swingstateproject.com/showDiary.d o;jsessionid=6912F27E6E5266085C50C46550E 79EC4?diaryId=2971

So you do live in a pre 2006 world?

"If you readjust the finds to reflect the 04 turnout, instead of having a poll that shows Obama equaling McCain"

Before you answer that, there is this (I think there is even more data, but I wanted to provide a quick rebuttal before you answer):

To give a full idea of what the numerical shifts mean, one would have to look back to see the margins for 2004, and what the new regisrations mean in 2008. However, what one could not conclude is that 2004 is 2008.

by bruh3 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:37:56 PM EST
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by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:58:28 PM EST
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The '06 turnout was about the same, +2 for D's.

by bruh3 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:09:09 PM EST
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My point jerome is that you are acting like the world is static as to 2004.

In a presidential race, it is (none / 0)

Obama is and has always been very weak against McCain. Voters don't feel secure enough to back an Adlai Stevenson-type candidate.

As in 2004, negative campaigning and wedge issues also still hurt Dem turnout - that hasn't changed.

by Betsy McCall on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:12:17 PM EST
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Re: In a presidential race, it is (none / 0)

betsy i dont care what you think. good luck.

by bruh3 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:15:30 PM EST
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Back at ya! (1.00 / 1)

What a loser attitude. I thought the Obama kidz were fighters. I thought they were smart and learned from their mistakes.

My bad.

by Betsy McCall on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:19:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Back at ya! (2.00 / 0)

I thought calling everyone "kidz" was insulting. Wait, it is.

I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt

by fogiv on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 04:45:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well Good thing (none / 0)

we didn't nominate an Adlai Stevenson-type candidate.

Really Betsy, you're opinion is not those of everyone else. Hillary wasn't much stronger against McCain, so get over yourself.

the only thing Obama and Stevenson have in common is that they're both from Illinois.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:16:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Check the polls (none / 0)

Reality based politics and strategy are the only things that will get Obama that double digit lead he needs.

Have the courage to acknowledge when something isn't working and that you and your candidate may not have all the answers.

Transform this campaign. Reinvent it and make it something that will win.

by Betsy McCall on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:20:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I have acknowledged over and over (2.00 / 0)

again that something isn't working, but I've always been opening discussion to talk about what could work. You, on the other hand, do nothing but cry and whine about how much we suck and demean all of us who worked our asses off to support the candidate we felt would make the best President.

You're solution to everything is the Clintons, the Clintons. The Clintons couldn't help themselves Betsy, they're not the only answer to this.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:23:21 PM EST
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Re: Today's Other Polls: It's Tied (2.00 / 1)

Yikes, crikes. If we are losing independents by that much, we are so screwed. I am very worried about women. Rasmussen says Obama's lead among women has shrunk to only 3%. Not good at all. I suppose that's the Palin effect, which may fade.

Let's face it, about 45% will vote for the democrat candidate and 45% will vote for the republican. It's that other 10% we need to worry about.

It's not helping that our guy is admitting that the surge worked. Nor is it helping that he looks so, well, wimpy. He needs to ''man up", particularly since he's running against McCain.

by SueBee on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:42:38 PM EST
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Most Americans (none / 0)

think the surge worked. That's not an issue we win on regardless.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:49:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Most Americans (none / 0)

They think that because the DEmocrats as a group have let that go unchallenged. But more than that obvious fact that surges tend to bring down violence in most cases, democrats need to try harder to point out that surge's "success" still hasn't reduced the money wasted on this war and that it was still a foolish war to begin with. And that McCain was still one of the supporters of this foolish war. There needs to be ads to illustrate to the people very clearly how that money could have been used domestically.

by Pravin on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:56:19 PM EST
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by Steve24 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:59:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama said that he wasn't going to be bullied by the Republicans, and that he wasn't going to allow attacks on his record and character to go unanswered. However, talking is one thing and implementing action is another. Obama's counterattacks have been low-key and mediocre at best. He's so damn concerned with not pissing McCain off which is why he needs to preface every statement with what an honorable man McCain is and how we all respect his service. Yes, duly noted, but does he still need to say it? It weakens the power of his attacks. And it also makes him look wimpy.

The Key is White Women (none / 0)

I think McCain realized that white women were a swing group. Even though women as a whole vote Democratic, white women have been split pretty much 50-50 in the last couple of election cycles. McCain's surge is probably mostly due to the Palin effect, where older low income white women are moving towards McCain.

by Zzyzzy on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 04:32:34 PM EST
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I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt

Well shit, let's just pack the whole operation up then, shall we? Let's disband the democratic party. We lost. It's over.

Will you be taking the site down soon? It's about electing democrats, and the polls keep "proving" that the task is nigh on impossible.

What are we all doing here? Will someone get the lights on the way out?

by fogiv on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:45:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:02:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think Obama still has a good shot at winning, unless this is what it looks like still the week before the election.

I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt

A front page post (from you) to that effect might do wonders for morale around here.

The old grey donkey, Eeyore stood by himself in a thistly corner of the Forest, his front feet well apart, his head on one side, and thought about things. Sometimes he thought sadly to himself, "Why?" and sometimes he thought, "Wherefore?" and sometimes he thought, "Inasmuch as which?" and sometimes he didn't quite know what he was thinking about.

by fogiv on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:16:00 PM EST
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Re: Today's Other Polls: It's Tied (2.00 / 1)

I like Pooh more.

by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 04:06:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt

Naturally.

When you are a Bear of Very Little Brain, and Think of Things, you find sometimes that a Thing which seemed very Thingish inside you is quite different when it gets out into the open and has other people looking at it.

--Winnie the Pooh

by fogiv on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 04:39:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 07:11:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The others can come around on their own time.

by bushsucks on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:54:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

but ... might the make up of party affiliation have changed since 2004?

by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:01:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

'06 was about the same, and post-Palin, I'd bet on it also being the same in '08.

by bruh3 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:11:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

thats all your argument relies upon. also i think part of the problem is you aren't admitting what else has changed since 2004. take one state- 0hio- what's changed that's different since 2004 and now? in a close race who has the better ground game for example? are you honestly saying kerry had the game that obama has? what about the gop not being in charge of the state apparatus this year versus they were in control in 2004.

Not REALLY (none / 0)

CNN's poll is the poll of polls taken over the weekend. So their accurate reflection won't happen for a couple more days.

And Rasmussen has shown McCain leading by 1 pt for 2 days.

Zogby gives McCain a 5 pt lead

Gallup has yesterday 3 pt lead for MCcain and today it grows to 4 pt lead.

The trend and numbers look pretty clear.

by thebluenote on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:43:37 PM EST

Re: Not REALLY (none / 0)

I think you are wrong on several fronts. But mostly I question anyone including Zogby in their analysis to refute a claim.

by bruh3 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:50:17 PM EST
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Re: Not REALLY (none / 0)

lol, well you can question all the facts and claims you want, that's your prerogaive and probably how you came to support Barry. But that doesn't make me wrong for reporting the facts you want to ignore, it makes you wrong and in denial.

by thebluenote on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:58:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not REALLY (none / 0)

except you were just provided a link to where one of yor facts is wrong. i was trying to politely point out that you are full of shit, but i guess that's not an option.

by bruh3 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 04:24:59 PM EST
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Nope. (none / 0)

Click the link.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll questioned 1,022 registered voters by telephone. The survey, conducted Friday through Sunday, has a sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

My Direct Democracy

by Jonathan Singer on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:09:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

by eddieb on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:56:05 PM EST

I am just astounded by all this "Much ado about nothing" ranting. In my mind McInsain didn't get a bounce he got a dribble. The fundementals are all there for another Democratic rout we just have to get off our buts and work for it. We heard all this hand wringing in 06 and look what we got! The only answer to anyone who is worried about the polls is for them to get up and join the Obama compaign's efforts to get everybody registered to vote and then do all in you power to GOTV.

Democratic Pessimism (2.00 / 1)

Reading some of the above comments I can't help but think that some people here, and in the party in general, genuinely prefer losing. That way they can say things like "Look how dishonest they are, thats why we lost!" and "Look how fair and honest our candidates are, thats why we lost!" or "Look at all of the voter discrepancies; thats why we lost."

I am sick of it. Get over it. I love Jerome's "If you compare these numbers to 2004 turnout you will see that..."

Who gives a shit about 2004 turnout? This isn't 2004. Why would you conclude that turnout would be the same with the huge voter registration edge we have run up in recent years?

Stop being pessimistic everybody. YES, we COULD lose. We can also win; but to do it we have to get out there and bust our asses.

Hey guys? You know we won right? You can stop the doooooomsaying now.

by JDF on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:58:20 PM EST

So how do we win? (1.00 / 2)

More of the same won't work. Clap harder and worship Obama won't work.

This campaign needs some kind of major transformation.

by Betsy McCall on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:00:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well (none / 0)

you could do what I'm doing next month, get out there and rally supporters and voters, register new ones, and talk about what a scumbag McCain is to every "undecided" person you meet, followed by something great Obama can do for that specific person.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:05:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well (none / 0)

people who post here need to be divided into various groups. the chicken littles, the trolls, etc. based on this person choice of words i am assuming they aren't really rooting for an obama win. armstrong maybe wrong in his assumptions, but i dont question whether he wants the democrats to win.

by bruh3 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:13:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh I just want to see (1.75 / 4)

if Betsy really wants to win. If she does, she'd say, like me, what she plans on doing to help. If she really believes we're fucked and there's no way out, then she should just say it.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:15:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Uh oh (2.00 / 1)

Betsy McCall troll rates me. This "Obama kid" hit a nerve somewhere. Stupid me. I should just go back to my reckless rap music and mooching off my parents.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:21:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Grassroots campaigning is only for GOTV (none / 0)

If voters don't believe or aren't swayed by the candidate himself, all the begging and pleading from neighbors, friends and co-workers won't matter.

If Obama is running ads about himself on radio and tv 24/7 and doesn't have 60% of the voters supporting him, there's nothing the grassroots can do.

Grassroots campaigning is strictly for GOTV, turning out your base, not for convincing voters to change their mind. If you don't have a large enough base, all the GOTV won't matter.

Sorry, but its reality based politics.

by Betsy McCall on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:16:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Then this election (2.00 / 1)

was never winnable. Voters weren't swayed enough by any of our candidates anymore than others.

So this election was over before it even began.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:19:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I wouldn't say that (none / 0)

Clinton did very well against McCain. If Obama's smart, he'll bring her and Bill back in and start running them in the radio and tv ads.

by Betsy McCall on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:35:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Clinton (none / 0)

barely did better than Obama, don't kid yourself. She wasn't up double digits.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 05:45:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Grassroots campaigning is only for GOTV (2.00 / 1)

Thanks for being so bitter and sour and full of crap! Damn your such a downer. I'm sorry but you might consider going over to Little green snottballs and spend all day telling them how they can't win. This way you can still do what you do best (wine and complain) and at the same time help Obama win this election! ;-)

by eddieb on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:28:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Grow up (none / 0)

If you want to win this election, the earlier you face the truth, the better chance you have of turning it around.

Maybe its time for some tough love for Obama. Get on his case and tell him to fix his campaign. Its broken.

And believe me, I'm even more unhappy than you by this state of affairs. I have to take the calls of dying, uninsured people 24/7. I'll gladly trade places with you.

by Betsy McCall on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:37:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Do you even believe (none / 0)

this election is winnable? Because it sounds like you don't.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:42:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Grow up (2.00 / 0)

You're the same Betsy that coached HRC to victory in the primaries, right?

I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt

by fogiv on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 04:57:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Grassroots campaigning is only for GOTV (none / 0)

Well, Betsy, in the old tire political organizing model you're right. In the new Obama organizing model, you're wrong.

It's an old political organizing maxim that ground operations are GOTV and just that. But the Obama campaign has been running "organizing institutes" and training seminars across the country for months, teaching staff and volunteers how to PERSUADE.

The key is to ask the person on the door what their issue is and then give them an education on it. It's much closer to a true community grassroots model than a national campaign turn-out model. That's where all that money is going -- boots on the ground moving the message.

And for the dumpteenth time, the GOP just had one hell of a convention --

because they beat all expectations for a snooze fest
because Palin is still everyone's new toy on Christmas morning
because no one saw that VP pick coming
because they pounded to death the POW drum

All of those effects will WEAR OFF once people start to calm down.

Jesus Christ was a community organizer and Pontius Pilate was a governor.

by GRO on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:37:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's why Obama's ahead double digits (none / 0)

in the polls. Oh wait. No he isn't. His strategy worked fine for the primaries, for the GE not so much.

by Betsy McCall on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 01:32:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So how do we win? (none / 0)

I neither clap nor worship, and suggesting it insults those of us who work our asses off for the ticket.

I volunteer, donate, canvas, phonebank, and register voters.

Apart from slinging baseless insults and bitching on the internet, what the fuck do you do?

My money says: NOTHING.

I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt

by fogiv on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 04:52:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sharpen the message (none / 0)

and impose strict message discipline. Time is short.

by Betsy McCall on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 01:33:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Either way (2.00 / 1)

It aint pretty. This election shouldn't even be CLOSE.
Period.

by easyE on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:15:58 PM EST

Very true (none / 0)

I think all progressives and liberals feel the same way. I just can't understand the kind of mind that would still after all this time could even comtemplate voting for McInsain. But I guess these folks live in a different world than we do. Be that as it may we now have to work even harder to win. Thats all folks.

by eddieb on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:39:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Here's the Reason (none / 0)

For the first time since 1952, neither an incumbent president or vice president is on a ticket. This has allowed McCain to claim the mantle of change.

Obama really has to hammer that he is the agent of change and McCain is not. It's not good enough for him to attack Bush, for most people do not believe that McCain is Bush. He needs to talk about how McCain's economic policy is more of the same. He needs to attack McCain.

by Zzyzzy on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 04:37:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Is there anyway (none / 0)

I can do it. I'm frustrated, so frustrated, I'm fucking coming home on Continental Flight 41 to Newark on October 5th. Then it's down to McLean to work with my brother on Obama's campaign.

Is there a way I can make TV ads for this campaign. I have television production experience and I know exactly what to say and how to do it. Give me an Avid editor, I can bang out two, three a day. Custom made for each swing state.

I can talk about McCain's support of free trade for Michigan and Ohio. I can make one busting his and Palin's "earmarks" crap for New Hampshire and Colorado.

Hey Florida, see McCain, say Goodbye to Social Security and the State of Israel. Hey New Mexico and Nevada, see McCain/Palin, see four years of persecution of Mexican-Americans.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 05:44:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This place is so damned full of (2.00 / 1)

Chicken littles, hand-wringers, and concern trolls, it makes me absolutely sick.

John McCain, maverick

by lojasmo on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:35:39 PM EST